A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
