Just 60 days prior that the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him for missing a through-ball. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or the source of the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was far more favourable. When the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, Villa appear curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
